All eyes are on the Mutua Madrid Open now for one of the few non-Grand Slam tournaments that feature both men and women. The first couple of rounds have just gotten underway, so let’s have a look at who are the favourites and who might be a worthwhile long-shot to capture the title that has big ranking implications.
We can also cast a furtive glance at the upcoming French Open to see who are the early contenders there.
Wide playing field with defending champ Djokovic and Federer out at Madrid.
Of course, 5-time champion and top seed Rafael Nadal is an odd-ons favourite (-125) to win here, as he is automatically at any clay-court tournament in the world. The only other contestant to have won Madrid before (2018) is out-of-form 5th seed Alexander Zverev at +2000.
No. 4 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas, who was a hair’s breadth away from winning Barcelona last month as Nadal hit a fortuitous net cord when match point down, is a tip and ranks as second favourite, and pretty good value at +600. 3rd seed and 3rd favourite (+700) Dominic Thiem hasn’t played much recently and hasn’t made any waves at all this clay-court season.
Some of the outsiders who may be more value propositions include the ATP Cup-winning team of Russians Andrey Rublev (+1400), Aslan Karatsev (+2000) and Daniil Medvedev (+2000). 6th seed Rublev beat Nadal at his much-loved Monte Carlo in April, and unseeded Karatsev continued his awesome rise by just beating Djokovic in an epic match in Serbia. 2nd seed Medvedev was having a fantastic year before it was hampered by catching Covid.
He will be a bit of an unknown quantity as this is his first tournament back. If you fancy backing one of the youngsters, 19-year-old, 14th seed Jannik Sinner is also a good bet at +2000, and 20-year-old 15th seed Félix Auger-Aliassime a fun long shot at +5000.
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Early look at French Open.
The same names pop up as we look forward to the second Grand Slam of the year and the close of the clay-court season, with the addition of Djokovic and Federer. Novak comes in as 2nd favourite +300 to capture his second French open Crown, with Roger an outsider at +3300 for his second too. Perennial favourite Rafa is the only one odds-on at -120 to capture “el decimocuarto” – his 14th title.
The women’s tournament is much more wide open as usual, with 6 contenders at under +1500, and Serena Williams coming in at just over, at +1600 to win her 4th. Favourite Simona Halep is at +450 with defending champion Iga Świątek close on her heels at +500. World number 1 Ashleigh Barty is next at +750 and Australian Open finalist Garbine Muguruza at +800.
The best value would come in the form of Naomi Osaka at +900 who no-one should take lightly, followed by Petra Kvitova at +2000 and Australian Open winner Sofia Kenin at +2500 if you fancy slightly longer odds.
