Novak Djokovic is now clearly No.1

Shaking down the top men’s players:

Novak Djokovic

1. Novak Djokovic. At 48-1 and with five victories over Rafa Nadal this year, and with his success at the majors, there is no question about who is the best player. The rankings say so, though that’s not always the right barometer. More importantly, Nadal says so, and in a moment we’ll get into the admirable candor of that great Spaniard.

The Championships - Wimbledon 2011: Day Thirteen — Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has only needed this year to settle two issues. One is his serve, which he had been toying with a year ago but which is now permanently fixed. The other is his mental and emotional strength, which he has improved by becoming Nole the Tennis Player first and Nole the Class Clown second. He’s still a funny guy, but he’s become more professional about his career.

What makes him better than Nadal is (a) his service return, which is the best in the game, and (b) he is the only player who can out-hit Nadal from the baseline — on any surface.

With 49 matches played already, I expect him to slow down a bit before the U.S. Open. He’s got Davis Cup vs. Sweden this month and then I think he’ll play just the two ATP 1000s (Cincinnati and Canada) before the U.S. Open, where he’ll be a strong favorite.

Rafael Nadal

2. Rafael Nadal. It takes a strong personality to be able to admit that you’re no longer the best player, and few No. 1s or former No. 1s have been as open as he was after his four-set loss to Djokovic in the Wimbledon final. But I think he made a very good point when he said that no one stays at the same level all the time. Pete Sampras, as great as he was, used to go through swoons with every clay court season, though his game would come back together on the faster surfaces.

That’s not the same situation with Djokovic-Nadal right now because Nole has been dominant or somewhat dominant on every surface — hardcourt, much of the clay season and now grass. You have to accept that Nadal played this Wimbledon at a very high level and still couldn’t beat the Djoker.

The question now is whether Nole can play at this level for an extended period of time — for a year or years. Roger Federer did it, but he wasn’t as pressed during those years by players as skilled as this current crop. Right now we’ve seen Djokovic at an extremely high level since last December’s Davis Cup final. That’s seven months and, yes, I think he can remain at or near the same level the rest of the year if he gets the right rest and stays as motivated as he is.

But if Djokovic is a “10” right now and his level drops to “9” or even “8.5,” we don’t know that Nadal at his best is good enough to beat even a slightly diminished Djokovic. One thing I think we do know. Nadal is clearly No. 2, both in the rankings and on any reasonable person’s best-player list.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray. Though Murray remains at No. 4 in the rankings and about 2,400 points behind Roger Federer, I place him marginally ahead of Federer at this point. I think he had an awakening at Wimbledon. The way he played the opening set vs. Nadal in the semis is the way he has to play when he reaches the last four of any big-money tournament. He got away from the counter-punching and defense and, instead of trying to coax Nadal into forced errors, he played riskier and more aggressive tennis.

What he did not do against Nadal is play that efficiently over three or four sets, though he gets full credit for trying. Of course, that’s why he’s No. 3 and Nadal is No. 2. Yet I think Murray now fully understands how he has to win in the homestretch of any Grand Slam or ATP 1000 and that makes him a better player.

Roger Federer

Roger Federer. He’s ranked No. 3 but the only way he wins a 17th Grand Slam is if the stars are all lined up for him. That means Djokovic or Nadal are upset along the way to the semis. Because he’s no longer No. 1 or No. 2, Federer will have to face either Djokovic or Nadal in the semis of any major in order to get to the final. That’s a tough final two matches.

He’s nearly 30 years old and the effect on his legs is evident. In that fifth set against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Federer missed three running forehands that he used to be able to hit blindfolded. The legs have tired just enough to rob him of that final half-step he needs to hit the running shots.

He didn’t have a break-point OPPORTUNITY in the final four sets vs. Tsonga. When is the last time that happened, if ever. Even at No. 4 on my list, he’s going to have a struggle to keep his head above Juan Martin Del Potro, who is quickly working back to his Grand Slam winner level of a couple years ago.

Juan Martin Del Potro

Juan Martin Del Potro. Predictably, it has taken awhile for him to get the matches he needed to find the rhythm that makes him so very dangerous and, despite his loss at Wimbledon, you know he’s going to get better. Here is the one player with the firepower both on the serve and from the baseline who could rock Djokovic back on his heels, but he’s going to have to find just a little more backcourt consistency.