by Andrew Eichenholz
Novak Djokovic is sitting on his throne atop the tennis world right now, but he still has one jewel missing in his crown—a French Open title.
Since last year’s U.S. Open, when Djokovic lost in the semifinals, he has had statistically the best eight months since John McEnroe’s historic 1984 season when the American went 82-3.
When you think about the best individual seasons since McEnroe’s, the first few that come to mind are recent years of dominance in which players won three major titles.
Federer won three Grand Slams in a year twice, with his 2006 season statistically coming out better than 2007 by virtue of 24 more wins. The Switzerland native won the Australian Open, Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, only dropping his Calendar Slam with a loss to Rafael Nadal in four sets at Roland Garros.
Nadal himself won three majors of his own in 2010. The Spaniard rebounded from his first and only loss at the French Open in 2009 to Robin Soderling by taking what would be one of nine Roland Garros crowns, while also taking home another Wimbledon and his first U.S. Open crown.
Djokovic had a similarly impressive year in 2011, winning not only three Grand Slams, but a record-breaking five ATP Masters 1000 level events, only faltering towards the end of the season.
All are very similar to one another in terms of numbers, but Djokovic’s last eight months have been statistically significantly better than them all.
| Player | Year | Record | Dominance Ratio | Dominance Ratio (Career) |
| Novak Djokovic | Since ’14 U.S. Open | 52-3 | 1.47 (1.39 last 52 weeks) | 1.26 |
| Novak Djokovic | 2011 | 70-6 | 1.38 | 1.26 |
| Roger Federer | 2006 | 92-5 | 1.40 | 1.29 |
| Rafael Nadal | 2010 | 71-10 | 1.35 | 1.29 |
Each player won at least 88 percent of their matches, but TennisAbstract.com’s “dominance ratio” shows the significant difference.
Dividing the number of return points won by service points lost provides a stat that shows who is winning more of the points they should not, giving an idea of who is truly “dominating.”
| Player | Year | # of Matches vs. Top-10 | % of Matches vs. Top-10 | Wins/Losses vs. Top-10 |
| Novak Djokovic | Since ’14 U.S. Open | 27 | 49.1% | 25-2 |
| Novak Djokovic | 2011 | 26 | 34.2% | 21-5 |
| Roger Federer | 2006 | 23 | 23.7% | 19-4 |
| Rafael Nadal | 2010 | 16 | 19.8% | 11-5 |
With that in mind, it statistically looks as if Djokovic will win his first Roland Garros title in a couple weeks. His numbers the last eight months have been better than Nadal’s career numbers at the French Open, the tournament he has played his best tennis at throughout his career.
What is most impressive is who their opponents were. One may wonder if Novak’s season has been a fluke, but the number of top-10 guys they played and beat in each season shows another major difference.
Djokovic is not only performing better, but doing so against stiffer competition. Nadal won 88 percent of his total matches in 2010, yet Novak has won 92 percent of his matches against top-10 opponents in the last eight months.
The terre battue is waiting, and it is very possible that a new jewel will be added to Djokovic’s crown.
