The season-ending Barclays ATP World Tour Finals begin on November 13th at the O2 Arena in London and while two spots remain unfilled, it might not matter on the night. It’s hard to see past Novak Djokovic for this one, even despite his recent struggles on the court.
Paris Masters
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will fight a separate battle on the way to London, with the world number1 spot up for grabs in this week’s BNP Paribas Masters in Bercy, France. Murray has existed in the Serb’s considerable shadow for 76 weeks but a 15-match winning streak has the Scot in a favourable position to top the leaderboard.
There are a few complications. Murray has to win overall without Djokovic reaching the final. Alternatively, Murray can lose in the final if Djokovic gets no further than the quarters. In either case, Andy Murray has to go one better than the incumbent number one. It’s been four years since anybody other than Djokovic won the Paris Masters, however.
The field for the ATP Finals consists of the two players plus Gael Monfils, Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and Stan Wawrinka. The seventh spot would have gone to Rafael Nadal but the Spaniard has retired for the season due to a wrist injury, along with notable absentee Roger Federer, who hasn’t played since Wimbledon.
The final two slots will probably go to one-time French Open semi-finalist Dominic Thiem, Tomas Berdych, or 2014 US Open winner Marin Cilic, depending on the outcome of the Paris tournament. There’s also hope for David Goffin, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Roberto Bautista Agut and Lucas Pouille.
Wimbledon
Murray is having the season of his life. He’s 69-9 (win-loss) for the current campaign, with an impressive set win rate of 28 from 30 in his last fifteen games. He’s finally ended the nightmare of his second serve, winning 54% of points from it in 2016 and has improved his forehand shot, which, historically, has been a weakness.
Murray has done an outstanding job to close the gap on Djokovic, running him down from an 8,000-point lead in June to just 415 on Sunday, but it’s hard to separate Murray’s career-defining season from Novak Djokovic’s truly awful one. The Serb has struggled with injuries and personal problems off the court in 2016.
It’s a great disservice to the Scot but it’s not a new observation. In the build-up to Murray’s first Grand Slam success, there was an intimation that he had struggled to win at Wimbledon because he was playing in a ‘golden age’ of competition, with the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic running the show.
With the deepest respect to the player, Andy Murray is not a player of the same calibre as Djokovic. Granted, he’s a consistent finalist but the Serb is consistently a winner – there’s a reason Djokovic has twelve Grand Slam titles and Murray only has three, despite making their debuts in the same year (2005).
Momentum
The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals isn’t a trophy that changes hands very often. There have been just four winners in 13 years, with Djokovic and Federer taking home nine trophies combined. The Scot has struggled time and again in the competition, with his recent showings very different to those at Wimbledon or the US Open, for example.
Not only does Murray have to reach the final in London, a feat he’s never achieved, he will also have to undo the five-year monopoly on titles held by Djokovic. The Scot is favourite in the latest tennis betting (5/4) but that’s on the back on his stellar season to date and not due to any particular prowess at the O2.
As a bookend to the year’s tennis, the ATP World Tour Finals aren’t particularly important and Murray will focus on attaining the number one spot before it begins. He’s odds-on for the Paris Masters in Bercy and goes into the event with a lot of momentum behind him.
