The race to compete in the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of the year is closer than many could have foreseen, with the battle to take one of the eight spots almost defined by those who will not be competing. With Novak Djokovic and Stan Wawrinka out of the rest of the year with injuries, there will definitely be a range of new faces heading to the O2 Arena in November.
Andy Murray won the 2016 iteration of the ATP tour’s curtain call, but it is debatable whether the Scotsman will defend his title. Murray has struggled with injuries of late, and in turn that has hampered his ability to pick up ranking points. Currently, he sits at sixth in the race, if Djokovic and Wawrinka are discounted. Murray has a considerable sum of ranking points to defend for the rest of the year, so he will be keen to run deep in the remaining tournaments. If Murray is fit, he should inevitably accumulate sufficient points to make it to London.
Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, the two players to have won Grand Slams this year, have already qualified. Nadal won the French Open while Federer dominated the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and it looks likely that these two will finish the year as the ATP’s top two. Alexander Zverev has all but qualified, with the young German enjoying an exceptional year including two Masters 1000 titles to his name. Fellow youngster Dominic Thiem will consolidate on his place in the finals last year by making the trip to London once again, and Marin Cilic also looks well-placed to make consecutive appearances in London. Otherwise, the other finalists could well depend on who goes deepest at the US Open in September, with not many points separating a raft of challengers.
Milos Raonic has endured a difficult year so he will be hoping to compensate with a strong showing at the US Open. The latest tennis betting odds at bet365 reflects his credentials for a run deep into the tournament, with Raonic sixth favourite to take the title at odds of +1600. Raonic is another to have struggled with injury concerns, but if he can shake off any niggles then he will fancy his chances of impressing at the US Open. Grigor Dimitrov’s form has suffered of late, but the one-time heir to Roger Federer enjoyed a first ATP title for three years at Brisbane. That title was followed by the trophy at Sofia, and Dimitrov certainly has the game to make an impact at the remaining tournaments this year. The question marks over Dimitrov have never been over his technical ability but rather his mental fortitude.
Sam Querrey is an unlikely contender to make it to London. The American has never surpassed number 17 in the world rankings, but as other players’ points drop off he should have reached new heights by the end of the year. An impressive season could culminate in a spot in London, although Querrey has been at his most imperious in Mexico where he took titles in Acapulco and Los Cabos. Yet Querrey has form for shocking some of the world’s best, shocking Djokovic at Wimbledon in 2016 and taking down Murray the following year on his way to his first Grand Slam semi-final.
Therefore it could be Querrey who benefits from others’ injury problems to seal his place alongside the elite at the ATP World Tour Finals. The likes of Tomas Berdych, David Goffin and Kei Nishikori are not far behind the American in the race, and these players all have a history at the Tour Finals. Yet in a year that has been dominated by a resurgent Federer, anything is possible.
