With the quarterfinals of the 2018 Davis Cup around the corner (starting on April 6th) now is as good a time as any to evaluate the rest of the tournament. Using the Elo rankings of the likely players gives a rough estimate of expected wins in the four singles matches that make up the bulk of a Davis Cup tie, although they obviously can’t tell the whole story.
Italy vs France
France meets Italy with the Italians getting choice of surface. The Italians are opting for clay courts, and the tie will be played in Genova. Frenchman Richard Gasquet is likely the best clay-court player in the tie, and is leading in clay court Elo, although he’s followed closely by Fabio Fognini. Adrian Mannarino hasn’t been playing up to his ranking recently, so it’s likely that he’ll be substituted for Lucas Pouille, who played in the opening round against the Netherlands. Making that switch on the Italian side improves France’s expected wins (calculated by difference in Elo) in the four singles matches from 1.89 to 2.43 and gives France a decent chance of entering the third rubber at 2-0.
The lineup will mean everything in this tie, as both Andreas Seppi and Fabio Fognini can and will beat up on Adrian Mannarino, but Lucas Pouille (or even Jeremy Chardy) presents a much more even challenge. According to the majority of betting sites, France are the favorite to win the 2018 Davis Cup outright – currently 11/4 versus 12/1 for Italy — but keep an eye on their squad announcement. MyTopSportsbooks.com will let you know which sites get their lines up the earliest.
Spain vs Germany
Spain meets Germany at the Plaza de Toros in Valenica, and predictably chooses clay courts, as well. Roberto Bautista-Agut and Pablo Carreno Busta are both among the best clay-courters in the world, ranked in the top 30 in clay court Elo. The Germans could call on Philipp Kohlschreiber, who is very good on clay, and Alex Zverev, who is obviously extremely capable but struggling recently. Those lineups would not yield great results for Spain, with 1.49 expected wins from those four matches. Adding Rafael Nadal, who is currently injured but hoping to be back in time for the clay court season, would change things dramatically, pushing Spain to near-certain victory. But Nadal’s priority in the coming weeks is undoubtedly recovering for and winning the French Open.
Right now, Spain has better odds to win the tournament (3/1 versus 6/1 for Germany). But unless Nadal has a streak of patriotism and good health, they are liable to be ousted in the quarters.
Croatia vs Kazakhstan
Croatia and Kazakhstan are also playing on clay. Croatia’s Marin Cilic is the highest-ranked player left in the Davis Cup and a top 20 player on clay. Between him and Borna Coric, it’s very difficult to figure where Kazakhstan’s wins are going to come from. Croatia is the overwhelming favorite in this tie (and 7/2 to win the tournament, as a whole), but then again so was Switzerland when they faced the Kazakhs in the previous round.
Coric and Cilic both have win probabilities against Kazakhstan’s best player (Mikhail Kukushkin) of over 80%, and none of the other Kazakh players have completed enough tour-level matches in the last year to have a calculable Elo.
USA vs Belgium
The USA/Belgium tie is the only one not being played on clay courts, as the US has elected to stick with hard courts. The US team announced has John Isner, Jack Sock, and Sam Querrey as headliners, but it’s not clear which of those three will play singles.
This tie looks precarious for Belgium, despite having the highest-ranked player in David Goffin, as their expected wins in the four singles matches is well below 2.00. They’ll be hoping that Jack Sock’s struggles with form in 2018 continue and that he underperforms in singles, or Jim Courier elects to put Sam Querrey in the lineup. Whichever the case, the US should be the favorite for this tie, and they are well ahead of Belgium in the Davis Cup outrights (6/1 vs 10/1). Their squad is much deeper than Belgium, whose second-best player (Ruben Bemelmans) is well below the standard of the three Americans.
