By Chris Kane
When we think of the unbreakable streaks in sports we immediately think of Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak in 1941. Or, if we look a little closer to the present, perhaps UCLA’s 88-game winning streak in the early 1970s under the auspices of John Wooden, Lew Alcindor and Bill Walton comes to mind. While neither of these records is likely to be broken any time soon, there are several reasons to consider Roger Federer’s streak of 22 straight Grand Slam semifinals the most impressive of all.
This is a debate that might be deemed fruitless (or perhaps two fruits….apples and oranges) by many but consider that in DiMaggio’s streak he batted 91 for 223 or .408. This means that he batted an average of 3.98 (and even more when you add the walks he took) times per game and only needed to succeed once per game to extend the streak. In order to reach a Grand Slam semifinal, you have to win five matches meaning that Federer has won 110 matches in a row to reach 22 straight (109 technically backing out the walk over he had over Tommy Haas in the round of 16 at Wimbledon in 2007 which the ATP does not count as a win on Federer’s record). It is 100% vs. 41%. Advantage Federer.
Ok, still not convinced? Let’s compare each streak to the competition. Prior to Federer’s 22 in a row the previous record was shared by Ivan Lendl and Rod Laver at 10 each. In other words, Federer’s streak is MORE THAN DOUBLE the previous record. Taken from a different angle, it would take an additional THREE YEARS of making each Grand Slam semi for anyone reaching 10 just to tie Federer. Almost unfathomable given the depth in the men’s game today. Never mind that the second longest current streak is ONE held by…the semi finalists at the US Open Nadal, Djokovic and Del Potro. As for DiMaggio? There are over 35 such hitting streaks that are more than half way to his 56. Your witness.
Let’s pick up on that point about the depth in the men’s game. Although Brad Gilbert tends to beat this point into the ground on a daily basis (and he would know)…he’s right. With the prize money at stake, racquet technology and training methods available to today’s players, the game has never had the quality and depth of talent it does today. One only need to look at the quality of Federer’s first round opponent at this year’s Australian Open, No. 37 Igor Andreev, to be convinced of this point. This is where the UCLA streak fails the test. The word parity did not reach the world of college basketball until well after John Wooden’s retirement. Despite getting the most out of his players he had a virtual monopoly on the talent of the day. Even if you don’t agree with that point…It’s still 110 to 88. Game, set and match.
Ok, hopefully at this point you have been convinced that Federer’s Grand Slam Semis streak is the greatest in all of sports. The question now becomes, is it about to end? Although this has been a very bad bet over the past five plus years the chances it reaches 23 aren’t looking good.
In order to continue this streak Federer is going to have to beat Lleyton Hewitt in the round of 16 and, more than likely, Nikolay Davydenko (would anyone bet against that at this point?!) in the quarters. On the surface you might say, hey, Federer is 16-7 against Hewitt including 14 in a row and is 12-2 against Davydenko (and let’s throw in 4-0 against Verdasco for good measure). No worries mate! Not so fast…
First, Hewitt. In their last encounter Hewitt gave Fed all he could handle losing a tough four-set match in the third round of the US Open. He employed an aggressive, attacking style and gave every indication in his post match interview with Darren Cahill Saturday that he intends to use it again. Nadal has shown that the way you beat Federer is to get him out of his comfort zone. You have to bring the fight right to him and Hewitt, playing in front of what is sure to be a heavily partisan crowd, is going to do just that. When you add the fact that Hewitt will be well rested and highly confident in to the equation…the streak is in jeopardy.
Now let’s look at Davydenko. Despite being perhaps the most non-descript player on the tour he also has to be considered its hottest player and arguably the favorite to win the entire tournament. He has won 12 matches and two tournaments in a row including the Barclays World Tour Finals (defeating each of the year’s Grand Slam winners along the way) and has beaten Federer twice in a row (no one beats Nikolay Davydenko 13 times in a row!!??). The second match with Federer was the most notable. Fed had to have had revenge on his mind and yet Davydenko won that one in straight sets proving the outcome in London was no fluke. He went on to defeat Nadal for the second straight time in the finals as almost an afterthought. His confidence versus Roger will be sky high IF and when that much anticipated matchup materializes.
But here’s the thing about Federer. He has had his doubters before and has almost always produced his best tennis under such circumstances. He is going to need to reach in to his magic hat right now or we will be saying THE KING (and the streak) IS DEAD. LONG LIVE THE KING! This tournament just got interesting.