Andy Roddick will, presumably, begin the 2011 season in sharp physical condition after his year of maladies in 2010, and good buddy Mardy Fish, now at a career best No. 16, is expecting to remain in high form, too, when the ATP Tour begins again in January.
But for those who have a watchful eye on the future of U.S. tennis, Ryan Harrison should be getting most of the scrutiny.
Harrison won’t be 19 years old until just before the French Open, but in his first full year on tour this season he’s jacked his ranking up 185 points to No. 173 and, though he’s still playing with the usual fits and bursts one expects from a teenager, he’s exhibited enough of a flash to suggest there are a lot of good things ahead.
If you’re judging U.S. tennis on the basis of Grand Slam results, this wasn’t a successful year. No one, including Roddick, reached a semifinal and Fish, for all his well-publicized weight loss and 40-14 won/lost record, didn’t perform well at the majors.
Still, this was, overall, a solid year for American tennis.
On the plus side: (a) Roddick is still top-10 at No. 8, (b) Fish is at an all-time best ranking, (c) the younger talent, Sam Querrey at No. 18 and John Isner at No. 19, seem entrenched now in the top 20, (d) and there is Harrison, a pugnacious young man who put on as good a show at the U.S. Open as we’ve seen from an American male teenager in a long time.
On the downside: (a) At 28, one has to wonder whether Roddick is at a point in his career where, no matter how hard he trains off-court, he’s going to pick up injuries, (b) Fish hasn’t proven he’s a force at the majors, (c) Isner didn’t play nearly as well in the second half of the season as he did in the first, (d) Querrey needs to find more consistency against the best players and (e) other than Harrison, there wasn’t much to cheer about among the younger U.S. players.
The U.S. began the season with nine players in the top 100 — Roddick, Querrey, Isner, James Blake, Fish, Taylor Dent, Rajeev Ram, Michael Russell and Robby Ginepri. There are five top-100s this week.
Time to break them all down.
* Roddick: Began 2010 at No. 7, will finish the year at No. 8 for a marginal -1. Splendid start to the year. Won Key Biscayne after a quarters finish at the Aussie Open. Didn’t play the clay season or Davis Cup in order to keep himself at a higher fitness level, but it all came apart with a case of mononucleosis and then joint problems. Had a 44-18 record overall with two titles. There was a bad round of 16 loss at Wimbledon, went out 3rd round at the French Open, second round at U.S. Open. It’s difficult to judge his year with the physical setbacks he’s had, but if he can minimize his inevitable injuries, I think he’s close to maximizing the talent he has.
* Fish: Up from No. 55 to No. 16 for a +39 jump this year. His weight loss has been well documented and no doubt it has improved his movement and confidence to stay in the longer rallies. Was 40-14 with two titles. In the majors, 1st round Aussie Open, 2nd French Open, 2nd Wimbledon, round of 16 at the U.S. Open. At 29 years old, he has to work harder than ever off-court to maintain what he’s achieved.
* Querrey: Q-Ball is +7, from No. 25 to 18 this year — 39-24 record with four titles and — this is significant — one on clay at Belgrade. At 23, it’s all in front of him. High moment came with a win over Andy Murray in theLos Angeles final, but he was smitten hard at the U.S. Open, losing a long, gripping five-setter to Stan Wawrinka in the round of 16. Other Slam results: 1st round at the Aussie Open and French Open, round of 16 at Wimbledon. One trouble statistic. He was only 3-8 against top 20s this year. Also, only 1-5 after the dejecting loss in New York.
* Isner: He’s a +15, going from No. 34 to No. 19. We all know what his big moment was this season, though it could be more accurately called a big 11-hour moment, if that makes sense. He defeated Nicolas Mahut in what will be one of the four or five most memorable matches in tennis history. And he played well two weeks later in Atlanta, where he lost in the final. But he seemed tired throughout the U.S. hardcourt season. He was 38-24 overall, but only 12-9 since Atlanta. At age 25, he’s often twinned with Querrey. Because of his bigger serve and his volleying ability, Isner can be top 10. He’s going to use this off-season to further strengthen himself off-court. One piece of advice: Stay out of 11-hour matches.
* Russell: He’s included here because he’s at No. 99, down 16 from last year. Mighty Mouse is 32 years old and has had more injuries than half these other players combined. But he’s still good enough to have made $322,000 this season, and no one is going to retire with that income potential. He was only 11-23 in ATP matches, but built his ranking and bank account in the Challengers, where he was 10-4 with a title. He’ll be in and out of the top-100 until he decides to start a second career.
Fallen top-100s.
* Blake: At 30 and with chronic knee problems, we’re not sure what sort of future James has in pro tennis. He’ll start next year at No. 135, a -91 fall from the start of 2010. Just 15-17 for the season. Had a good win over Tomas Bellucci at Stockholm a couple months ago, but then went down easily to Jarkko Nieminen two rounds later by 6-0, 6-2.
* Dent: Retired after a brave comeback from back surgery.
* Ram: Plunged 106 spots this year to No. 185. Reached top 100 with Challenger success, but you have to come back the next year and defend the points. He didn’t.
* Ginepri: At No. 144, it’s hard to see him playing much longer.
Three young players of note.
* Donald Young: Hard to believe he’s been part of the U.S. tennis consciousness for seven years now, but he’s only 21. He moved up 66 spots to No. 128 this year. Was 29-14 in Challengers, only 3-6 in ATP matches. He’s a complete mystery.
* Ryan Sweeting: Like Young, a junior Grand Slam titleholder. Up 38 spots to No. 116. At 23, there’s still time and he’s got a big enough game that he could make some inroads, but no one sees him any longer as an impact player in U.S. tennis.
* Harrison: Here is the key figure for U.S. tennis in 2011. If you look at his numbers, they’re not overwhelming — 4-9 in ATP matches, 13-12 in Challengers. But at 18, you’re looking for individual moments in his performances, not numbers. And at the U.S. Open, he upset Ivan Ljubicic, then lost to Sergiy Stakhovsky in five after holding three match points. That performance told us he can compete strongly with players in the 30-50 ranking range and that he’s not intimidated by big stages or big moments. What we’re looking for in 2011 is better week-to-week consistency at the Challenger level and spot brilliance when he plays regular ATP events. Don’t push this kid too hard. He’s young, he’s talented and while he doesn’t have Roddick’s big serve, he’s got Roddick’s bring-it-on attitude.