By Charles Bricker
There is no reasonable argument to be made that this was just one of those bad days at the office for Roger Federer. Or that Tomas Berdych was incredibly zoned in and will never play this well again.
This 6-4, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 triumph was not only fully earned by the better player on Centre Court, but showcased exactly why Federer is, as I explained a week ago, in a slow fade from the pinnacle of tennis.
It should properly go down as an upset, but it was no shock result. A strong argument could have been made before this face-off why Berdych, not Federer, would advance to Wimbledon’s semifinals and Darren Cahill, the supremely cogent former Andre Agassi/Lleyton Hewitt coach, was another who had predicted a Berdych victory.
Anyone who watches this game closely has seen Federer slip — not just in the last couple weeks but over several months time. As hard as he trains, as he gets deep into major events he loses just enough fitness to cost him results.
Did you see him in the final couple games of this loss? His first-serve percentage took a dive. He wasn’t moving to his right nearly as well as he was earlier in the match. His shots, even on grass, were “standing up,” giving the 6-foot-5 Berdych all the whiplash stroking opportunities he could desire.
Let’s get through Federer’s numbers first, then get back to the match:
* First time Federer has lost a set as badly as 1-6 at Wimbledon.
* First time his ranking will have slipped to No. 3 (as of Monday) since Nov. 10, 2003. He had 2,000 points to defend here and gets only 360. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic’s win pushes him past Federer, 6,905 to 6,885, and The Joker isn’t finished yet.
* First time he has failed to reach the semis of a fast-court Grand Slam since David Nalbandian beat him in the round of 16 at the U.S. Open in 2003.
* First time he’s failed to reach the semis at Wimbledon since Mario Ancic put him out in the first round in 2002.
* This was Federer’s ninth loss of the season (against 34 wins). Moving backward in 2010, the losses are to No. 13 Berdych, No. 32 Lleyton Hewitt, No. 7 Robin Soderling, No. 3 Rafa Nadal, No. 34 Albert Montanes, No. 40 Ernests Gulbis, No. 20 Berdych, No. 33 Marcos Baghdatis and No. 6 Nikolay Davydenko.
Nine isn’t a lot of losses, except for Federer, and as they mounted up this year he kept his brave face, suggesting that these defeats were no problem. His focus, he maintained, is on the Grand Slams. Even after Soderling slammed him out of the French Open, Federer tried to maintain cool confidence. OK, he lost before the semis on clay. But grass and hardcouts are his ticket and Wimbledon is coming up. Everything is fine.
That bravado might have been good enough for the legions of Federer fans, but the people who watch the game, know the game and can analyze the game could see how age and the rise of all the young talent in the game today has nibbled away at Federer’s dominance.
He is still a top player and will be a threat to win the U.S. Open in September. But I doubt he’ll be favored and I’m sure I wasn’t alone at the start of this Wimbledon in suggesting he would not win it. As early as the first round, it became apparent how much difficulty he was in when he needed five sets to beat Alejandro Falla — a Colombian who had four fewer grass court wins (7) than Federer had grass court titles.
But speak highly of Berdych for this win, too. He served beautifully, when he had to. Federer had a look at eight break points, but could convert only one.
Berdych has long had a reputation as a gifted player who could not even approach 100 percent focus on his game, until about a year and a half ago when he began to crank up his off-court training. Have you had a look at the quad muscles on this Czech? He may not be the fastest player in tennis, but those strong, long legs eat up a lot of turf very quickly.
Berdych also was known for failing to close out upsets. Clearly, all that has changed. This is now two straight wins over Federer for him.
He broke Fed to win the opening set, then went down quickly in the second. Momentum shift? No. Berdych may not have played brilliantly throughout this match, but he never wavered emotionally. He ripped through the third set in 27 minutes, then put those long legs on display to score the critical break in the final set.
Stretched to the limit, Berdych snapped a running cross-court forehand pass that glanced off Federer’s desperate racket. He was now up 4-3 but this commanding position came only after he rallied back from love-40 down at 3-3. At 30-40 in that game, he might have hit his best shot. He had left Federer a forehand pass down the line and Roger hit a perfectly stroked dipper just beyond the net. Berdych reached down and touched a backhand volley off his shoe laces for the winner to get to deuce and, eventually, to hold.
When Federer took the balls at 3-5, he looked shaken. He couldn’t get a first serve into play and Berdych, as he had most of this match, ripped into Federer’s seconds. Nevertheless, Roger held, sending Berdych out to serve for the match at 5-4.
The Czech was down 15-30 after leaving Federer an easy backhand pass, but, again, no wavering. On his first match point, Federer hit a winning volley. Roger then had his eighth and final break-point opportunity of the match and, incredibly, gaffed an easy forehand return off a second serve into the net.
On Berdych’s second match point, he delivered a 138 mph blast that Federer weakly returned. Moving inside the baseline, Berdych crashed his 21st forehand winner deep to the backhand corner. It was over. Federer packed up and walked off the court with his head down.
Here are some key statistics.
* Federer had nine aces in the first two sets, five in the last two.
* Federer got 77 percent of his first serves into play in the first two sets. That faded to 61 percent and 57 percent in the last two sets. Still not bad, but it forced Roger to play more second serves and that was a key to this loss.
* Federer won only 49 percent of his second serve points after averaging 56 percent for the year, and he should have been even higher than 56 percent on grass.
What Berdych did best in this match: (a) 21 forehand winners, many of them inside-outs; (b) out-powered Federer in the backhand-to-backhand rallies; (c) defended seven of the eight break points he faced; (d) and, perhaps most importantly, did not cave in emotionally. He got on top of this match in the third set, felt Federer’s game lapsing, and never let up.
What now for Federer? It’s been a great ride with 16 major titles, and there could be more. He’s not exactly ready for the junk heap. But it’s hard to see him ever getting back to where he was a couple years ago.
He’ll be ranked No. 3 on Monday, and we’re not even sure he’s as good as third best in the world any longer.
Charles Bricker can be reached at nflwriterr@aol.com