By Charles Bricker
No one is playing better tennis right now than Rafael Nadal, and given the friendly changes that produce higher bounces on the grass at the All England Club, that includes Wimbledon as well.
But if Nadal is to recapture the title at Wimbledon, he’s going to have to wade through the toughest quadrant in the men’s draw – 32 players that include Ernests Gulbis (whom Nadal could play in the third round), John Isner (possible round of 16) and Robin Soderling (quarters).
Never mind what happens if he fights through those three big hitters. That’s a daunting enough challenge right there. Nadal, ranked No. 1 but seeded No. 2, would have been my choice to win Wimbledon before the draw was pulled this afternoon. Now, I’m not as sure.
Number one seed and defending champion Roger Federer has no easy route through the quarters, either but, by comparison, it doesn’t look as difficult with Nikolay Davydenko, Tomas Berdych and Jurgen Melzer in his quadrant.
Federer opens against Alejandro Falla (no. 65) while Nadal begins with wild card Kei Nishikori, who is just coming back from wrist surgery.
A few more observations:
* Andy Roddick, who was short-circuited in his preparation for Wimbledon with a surprise loss to Dudi Sela at Queens, is likewise going to have a lot of rough to get through on the way to the quarters with Marin Cilic, Lleyton Hewitt and Novak Djokovic in his sector. I’m going to call Roddick’s loss to Sela a one-off bad day. Grass prep for Wimbledon is important, but in Roddick’s case, where his game flows out of his service, it’s less important than other surfaces. I like him to reach the semis vs. Federer in the upper half of the draw. He’ll debut vs. American compatriot Rajeev Ram.
* If there is, by degree, an easy quadrant, it’s the top 32 in the bottom half, and that’s good news for Sam “Q-Ball” Querrey, who opens against No. 71 Sergiy Stakhovsky and who must deal with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray to reach the semis. If he gets there, he might be confronting a well-worn Nadal. I don’t think Q is going to be unhappy with his draw.
* Murray? Andy Murray? Of course the British crowds will be lining up behind their one prospect. But this has not been a good season for Murray, who has not played anywhere near what was forecast for him in 2010. And here comes the additional heat of dealing daily with the extensive British media.
* On the women’s side, Venus Williams, seeded second, is probably no longer the second-best player in the world, even on grass, but she has a very cozy route to the semis. Her probable quarterfinal opponent? Francesca Schiavone, who won the French Open.
* Number one seed Serena is a logical favorite to win another Wimbledon, but even matches vs. Maria Sharapova (probably round of 16) and Na Li (quarters) don’t produce the inspiration they once might have. I’m more interested right now in rising star Sam Stosur of Australia, whose fast-evolving muscle game should give her a sizable edge on grass. She was upset at Eastbourne Friday, but no problem. She got in her prep and now she gets additional rest and practice days at Wimbledon. There’s no one in her quadrant she can’t beat, including No. 3 Caroline Wozniacki, whom she could only face in the quarters.
* After the usual clay court flop, the U.S. has 14 men in the main draw, including qualifiers Taylor Dent, Brendan Evans, Jesse Witten, Robert Kendrick and lucky losers Jesse Levine and Ryan Sweeting. That’s the good news. The semi-bad news is that Roddick plays Ram, of Indianapolis, in the first round.
* On the women’s side, there are nine U.S. players, including qualifiers Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Shenay Perry. Alison Riske, 20, was wild-carded into Wimbledon.
* Bless you, longtime U.S. fixture Jill Craybas, who turns 36 years old on the Fourth of July. Ranked 101, she’s playing in her 44th Grand Slam and 10th consecutive Wimbledon. First round opponent is No. 75 Alberta Brianti of Italy,
* Remember Mirjana Lucic, 14-year-old Croatia prodigy? She’s now 28 and finally taking her tennis seriously. She qualified, which means she’ll be playing her first Grand Slam since 2002 and her first Wimbledon since 2000.
* What now for James Blake, who has slipped to No. 110 because of injury and declining performance? He’ll open against Robin Haase of the Netherlands and, if he wins, gets to play Nadal. That shouldn’t be a problem. He’s not going to win Wimbledon, anyway, but he can use these two matches to re-establish some competitiveness. That’s all U.S. tennis needs from him right now.
* When Justine Henin announced her comeback a year ago, it was because she was inspired by the prospect of completing Grand Slam titles by winning Wimbledon. It should be abundantly clear that she’s not ready to win Wimbledon yet. Physically, she looks good. The movement is there and you don’t lose your savvy for the game. What is missing is patience and a dose of confidence that comes with becoming a dominant force, which she no longer is. . .yet.
* Kim Clijsters? It looks like her and Henin in a big-ticket round of 16 match.
* Best floaters (unseeded players): Mardy Fish, Benjamin Becker, Ana Ivanovic.
Charles Bricker can be reached at nflwriterr@aol.com