No surprises. This is just how the tennis cognoscente had it doped out at the Indian Wells 1000.
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic in the final.
If you’re going by the ATP rankings, that’s No. 1 Nadal vs. No. 3 Djokovic. Or, if you prefer real time form, I’d make that No. 1 Djokovic vs. No. 2 Nadal. You can rearrange those two any way you like, but one thing is undeniable. These are the two best players in the world right now, with Roger Federer a fading third.
Nadal looked just super in a 6-4, 6-4 win over Juan Martin Del Potro, who continues to make stunning progress in his return from last year’s injury. Then, about two and a half hours later, the Djoker walked off the stadium court with a 6-3, 3-6, 6-2 win over Federer, and he’s not only now won three straight over Roger, but six of the last seven sets they’ve played.
I’ll get back to Rafa and Delpo in a bit, because there’s a lot to say about both, but there’s more grist to the win by Djokovic, who is now 17-0 for the season going into this final and, to be perfectly precise, he’s now won 19 in a row dating back to last year, counting a couple of impressive, straight-set wins over Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils in the Davis Cup final in December.
If I’d been watching this match a year ago, I would have chucked in Djokovic’s chances after he got a bit too defensive in the second set because mental strength with him had been a chronic problem. Had been.
But after Federer played his best tennis in Saturday’s middle set, I had no doubt that the new, mentally stronger Djokovic was going to steel himself for the third, and he did.
Once again, as Nole did to Federer in the Australian Open and at Dubai, he hurt Federer badly on service returns. For years, Federer has, well, fed off free points — aces and other unreturned serves.
In three losses to Djokovic this year, Federer has 11 aces in 39 service games. Of course he’s holding serve most of the time, but he’s also under pressure in most service games against Djokovic, and that’s having a major effect on his inability to build momentum.
The numbers in the final set Saturday paint a dramatic picture. Federer carried some powerful momentum into the third set, having won the second with a service break that allowed him to begin serving the third.
He was then broken three times. He got only 46 percent of his first serves in. He won only 29 percent of his second serves. For the match, Federer won just 41 percent of his second serves, well below his season average of 57 percent.
This is where Djokovic is dominating him. You’re not going to get 15 to 20 aces a match from Nole, who doesn’t rely on those free points to win. When he’s serving, he’s going to beat you with his superior backcourt game. When he’s receiving against Federer, he’s going to make you feel constant pressure.
That, for me, is the foundation of how he has surpassed Roger.
One final note on the Djokovic win. The publicity people, both at the ATP and in the television studios, are making a pretty big deal about Djokovic bumping up to No. 2 in the rankings ahead of now No. 3 Federer with this win.
Well, hold your water, folks. Between now and the French Open, Federer has 190 points to defend and Novak 550. Chances are strong he won’t be No. 2 very long.
Now, Nadal.
Considering where Del Potro is right now, this was a great matchup for Rafa. The one area where I don’t see Delpo quite approaching his peak is ground stroke pace, particularly on service returns.
There’s still a little too much air under the ball to start talking about him in terms of a Grand Slam final, though let’s not make this into a crisis. He has, after all, gone semis, semis, win, semis in four tournaments this year. He’s getting there, but he’s going to have to feel a higher confidence level to start ripping the ball a little harder to get back to his U.S. Open win form.
And against Nadal, the one thing you don’t want to do is put air under ground strokes and give him the necessary time to fire.
Rafa broke first at 2-2 in the opening set and it was classic Nadal the way he did it. Delpo at 30-40 hit a first serve down the T, forcing a weak return which he pasted into Nadal’s backhand corner.
You can go back and look at the tape of this one. On the dead run and with his legs spread as wide as they could go without doing the splits, Nadal produced one of those all-wrists two-handers up the line for a clean winner and the break.
His left foot was right on the extension of the singles sideline and his right foot very near at the extension of the doubles sideline.
Just three aces for Juan Martin in this semifinal. He pounded in 68 percent of his first serves, which is quite high for a big hitter, but won only 60 percent of those points, which is not good, but which tells you he’s not firing as hard as he can.
Today, Nadal and Djokovic play for the 24th time since the 2006 French Open — less than five years ago. Nadal has won 16 times and is 4-0 in finals. But the Djoker is on a 19-match win streak. So, can we coin-flip this one?
I’ll take Nadal. I’m not sure why. Intuition maybe. I do know this for sure, though. This is going to be a great match.