On Monday, when the new rankings are official, Caroline Wozniacki will become the fifth woman to reach No. 1 without having won a Grand Slam singles title, but the Sony Ericsson WTA Tour has no plans “at this time” to redesign its ranking system.
That was the word from a spokeswoman from the women’s tour, who was unquestionably quoting someone very high in the organization.
There hasn’t been the slightest debate about Wozniacki having earned the No. 2 ranking weeks ago, but somehow the idea of her reaching No. 1 without a major is certain to bring the women’s rankings once again under scrutiny.
She’ll replace Serena Williams at No. 1, but does that make her a better player? That’s the question that will key the rankings debate, but, when you get to the bottom line, there’s very little the women’s tour can do to make the rankings more accurately reflect who’s No. 1.
It has to be based on a point system so that it’s objective, and the more you win, the more points you get. If you win enough and the player who was No. 1 plays relatively little, the point system is going to reward the Wozniackis of the WTA Tour.
And Kim Clijsters, who was first to reach No. 1 (2003) without having won a major. Amelie Mauresmo (2004) was second, Jelena Jankovic third (2008) and Dinara Safina fourth (2009). Clijsters and Mauresmo eventually won majors, but Jankovic and Safina have not.
So, why is Serena Williams being demoted to No. 2? She has played only 14 tournaments in the last 52 weeks to Wozniacki’s 24. She has a 24-5 record for the year with titles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon — both worth 2,000 points. But because players have to “defend” the points they earned at that tournament 52 weeks earlier, Williams has been largely treading water with her wins, and she’s played only six events in 2010.
She began this season with 9,075 points and, despite her prodigious won/lost record, her point total has dropped because of injury and a personal choice not to play the point-rich event at Indian Wells, Calif., to 6,995 this week. She’ll also lose another 140 points from this week’s China Open, leaving her on Monday with 6,855. Plus, it’s unclear when she’ll be back on court following foot surgery right after Wimbledon.
Meanwhile, Wozniacki has gone from a No. 4 ranking at the beginning of the year with 5,875 points to at least 6,930 when the Monday rankings are announced. That’s really not much of an increase for someone with 56 wins (15 losses), but because of the way the rankings are organized she ascends to No. 1.
By reaching the quarters in China on Thursday, she is currently 75 points ahead of Serena, and of course can increase that if she continues to win.
Is it a fair system?
It’s hard to see what else the WTA can do. When you have a No. 1 who not only wins Grand Slams but plays a vigorous schedule, like Steffi Graf, the system seems eminently fair.
But when you have a No. 1 who has played only six tournaments this year, you can advance the argument that she may be, on paper, the better player, but that she has to continue justifying her No. 1 ranking by playing more.
There was a time when the WTA gave “quality points,” a bonus that was based on the ranking of the defeated player. They did away with that for a number of very good reasons, adopting essentially the same system used by the ATP Tour.
And while there will be those who complain that Wozniacki doesn’t deserve to be No. 1, no one is arguing that Pete Sampras, Roger Federer and now Rafa Nadal don’t deserve to be No. 1 among the men. There may be some marginal differences in the two ranking systems, but they’re essentially the same.