By Mike McIntyre
It’s time again for some meaningful tennis. No disrespect to the ATP World Tour level 250 and 500 tournament’s, but the BNP Paribas Masters in Indian Wells represents a return to top-level tennis with all the big names in attendance.
Rafael Nadal claims to be healthy again and the world number one is ready to perform. Defeated a year ago by Ivan Ljubicic in the semi-finals here, Nadal will hopefully be fit enough to play at 100%. After a first round bye he will potentially face a qualifier or Pere Riba from Spain. Either way Rafa should be off to a good start. His first major obstacle could be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round and that could be a real special match for tennis fans. The 17th ranked Tsonga is a top-ten player when he is healthy and could give Rafa a tremendous challenge. While he is only 1-5 against Nadal, Tsonga has beaten him on hard courts before and usually gives the Spaniard a good test. With a weaker quarter of the draw, look for the winner of this match to likely advance to the semi-finals.
Still in the top-half of the draw, don’t expect defending champion Ivan Ljubicic to last long. Aside from battling some injury issues, the veteran Croatian has the unenviable task of facing Juan Martin Del Potro in the second round. Ljubicic has a first round bye, while Del P will very likely take care of fading veteran Radek Stepanek in his opening match.
The 2009 U.S. Open champion, Del Potro has been playing terrific in recent weeks. Finally recovered from a wrist injury that kept him off the ATP World Tour for the better part of 2010, DelPotro has rebounded nicely in 2011 with two semi-final appearances in a row in San Jose and Memphis followed by a victory at the event in Delray Beach against Janko Tipsarevic.
Del Potro, when healthy, is a top-five player who is capable of beating just about anyone when on his game. In a tennis world where Federer and Nadal have been less than perfect lately, here is a player who can really throw his name into the mix in competing for Grand Slams. Look for him to have a tournament where he truly announces his return to the upper-echelon of the men’s game.
A Del Potro vs. Dolgopolov third round would be fun to watch, as would a potential fourth round battle between Del P and Sweden’s Robin Soderling. I like one of these two players to advance to the finals in fact. I still feel like Soderling has yet to reach his potential.
In the last section of the top-half of the draw we have Andy Murray. What to make of the world’s fifth ranked player? He has a comfortable lead over sixth ranked DavidFerrer in the rankings but what has he done for us lately? He has only played in two events through more than two months of the year and his results were total opposites. He was playing fantastically at the Australian Open before he advanced to the finals and then tanked in three sets toNovak Djokovic. Murray then proceeded to lose in the first round in Rotterdam in early February to Marcos Baghdatis in straight sets. Since then Murray has been absent from the tennis court and that in itself makes me wonder what else is going on with the talented Scot. Perhaps his third straight-sets loss in a Slam final has taken a mental toll on him? His performance here in Indian Wells and then in Miami will go a long way towards determining what direction Murray is headed.
The bottom-half of the draw meanwhile seems to have many more meaningful matches on deck. Second seeded Roger Federer could face Kei Nishikori in the second round and then rising-star Milos Raonic in the fourth round. A Federer vs. Raonic match would be an electric test of old versus the new.
Tomas Berdych has been sleep-walking through this year so far and could face Marin Cilic or Stan Wawrinka in the fourth round. Honestly, I don’t see Berdych ever living up to his so-called potential despite his semi-final results at the French Open and making the finals of Wimbledon in 2010. There are several more mentally strong players on tour with just about as much physical talent as he has that I would bank on.
On the other side of the bottom-half draw we have aging American vet Andy Roddick and soon to be second ranked Novak Djokovic. Both should advance to the quarter-finals although Roddick’s path is less certain. James Blake, John Isner and Richard Gasquet all stand in Roddick’s way.
Djokovic meanwhile shouldn’t face too much opposition with the lights-out way he has been playing. Veteran Lleyton Hewitt and fellow-Serb Viktor Troicki linger in his section but neither is anywhere near matching his level of performance.
I like a Djokovic vs. Federer semi-final in this section of the draw to go along with Nadal and Del Potro in the top half. Who emerges is anyone’s guess but any way you slice it tennis fans worldwide are going to enjoy the next week and a half of tennis in California.