By Charles Bricker
I’ve cautioned you from Day 1 to not lose sight of Robin Soderling and now you don’t have any choice. You’re going to have to look at the big-serving, big-stroking, big-bodied Swede because he’s now just one round removed from an absolute blockbuster quarterfinal next Wednesday against Rafael Nadal.
Soderling still has to get by the running machine, David Ferrer, on Monday, while Nadal plays Paul-Henri Mathieu in the round of 16. Despite Nadal’s recent shaky play, including Saturday’s five-set victory over Philip Petzschner Saturday, a Rafa-Robin quarter is probable.
If it happens, I’m giving Soderling a slight edge, and here’s why.
While Rafa has struggled from two sets to one down in his last two matches, really turning it on in the latter stages (and we’ll get to some significant numbers on that in a moment), Soderling hasn’t lost a set, hasn’t been pushed to a tiebreak and, most importantly, hasn’t been broken. He’s gone 43 games in a row at Wimbledon without losing serve.
For the second time in a row, Nadal has seen what a big serve can do to neutralize lesser ground-stroking talent. All Robin Haase had to do on Thursday and Petzschner Saturday was to just hang in there with Nadal by holding serve, no matter how much better Nadal looked overall.
If you’re going to whip Rafa on grass, you’ve got to have the serve. Haase clubbed 28 in his five-set loss and Petzschner 25. Meanwhile, Soderling has averaged 14 aces per match, but, remember, he’s played three three-setters, not five-setters. On average, he’s right there with Haase and Petzschner and, with Soderling, it’s not just about aces. He’s hitting more service winners, getting more unreturned serves.
Soderling is not going to give you 140 mph blasts off his racket, but he’s consistently around 125-130 when he isn’t taking pace off by slicing serves to the deep corner of the deuce court. And he may have the best second serve in tennis right. He’s averaging 126 mph on his firsts and 110 on his seconds.
He’s faced only five break points, three against Saturday’s victim, No. 24-ranked Tomaz Bellucci of Brazil, who is the first quality opponent Soderling has played. But, regardless of his opponent’s rankings (Robby Ginepri is No. 72, Marcel Granollers No. 87), you can see how well Soderling is playing and he’s working with very high confidence right now, having beaten Roger Federer at the French and reached the final against Nadal in Paris.
As for Nadal, I have no doubt that high on his agenda on his Sunday off is going to be focus on his clamping down harder in the first three sets. He can’t keep depending on his last-match fitness to bail himself out, because with Soderling there might not be a fourth set.
In the Haase match, there wasn’t a lot Rafa could do in the opening set, in which Haase looked like Pete Sampras, crashing 13 aces and looking untouchable. Leading two sets to one, Haase at that point had cashed in both his break-point opportunities. Nadal shut him down in the final two sets.
In the Haase match, Nadal had 27 winners and 9 unforced errors after three sets. In the last two, his numbers were 15 and 3.
Next, Saturday’s Petzschner match. Nadal had 36 winners and 14 errors in the first three sets before bearing down and going 20-4 in the last two sets.
Great finishes by Nadal to keep himself in the tournament, but he can’t be happy having to pull these matches out.
Charles Bricker can be reached at nflwriterr@aol.com