It’s easy to admire Andy Murray’s speed, his balance, his bludgeoning first serve and his ability to power backhand winners from almost any position on court.
But for me the greatest difference-maker in his arsenal is his return of serve, and I don’t think you’ll get any dissent from Roger Federer.
Why would there be after Murray frustrated Federer in game after game in last Sunday’, limiting the Swiss to three aces in 6-3, 6-2 triumph in the Shanghai Masters final. For Murray, the key to returning so well is his quickness and his ability to read the serve quickly, and that’s no small task against Federer, who gives opponents no “tell” off his service toss.
In 57 matches this year against players not named Andy Murray, Federer is averaging a shade under nine aces per match. In his 13 matches against Murray, of which he’s won five, he has exceeded that average just twice — with 11 in a straight-set win at this year’s Australian Open and 11 in a split-set loss at the 2008 Masters Cup.
In Sunday’s win, Murray held Federer to just three aces for the third time. It’s a telling statistics for a couple of reasons. First, aces deflate opponents, and, second, they shorten the day and reduce the running the server has to do. They are the “free points” that every player chases in every match.
There are two ways to effectively channel a player’s aces and, while aces-per-match are important, there’s an even more efficient method — aces-per-service-games. By using that comparison, you eliminate the skewing effect of a player who goes five sets instead of three or three sets instead of two, which give him the opportunity to hit more aces.
But even by that method, it’s obvious how well Murray rebuffs Federer’s serving. Let’s look at a number of factors:
* In the Shanghai final, Federer had three aces in nine service games (33.3%), about one ace every three games.
* In his other four matches at Shanghai last week, he had 23 aces in 38 service games (60.5%).
* Federer’s season numbers for 57 matches, not including vs. Murray, is 433 aces in 622 service games (69.6%). That’s over twice the average Federer had in the Shanghai final vs. Murray.
* In his last two matches, both wins, against Federer, Murray has held Federer to seven aces in 21 service games.
Of course not all “free points” are aces. All unreturned serves are “free points,” but the ATP doesn’t keep statistics on unreturned serves and, in fact, Federer routinely gets a number of free points during matches in which opponents avoid an ace by getting a racket on the ball.
But it’s fair to conclude that players who are quick enough to avoid being aced a lot also are more effective returners, and certainly that applies to Murray.
He’s has risen to near the top of the rankings because he has a complete game, but nothing in his portfolio of shots is more complete than those service returns.
