By Mike McIntyre
Welcome back everyone to another season of tennis on the ATP World Tour. After an amazingly short break we are back to business and the first Grand Slam of 2011 is already upon us.
A year ago we watched Roger Federer surge out of the gates by defeating Andy Murray (the pre-tournament favorite) in Melbourne in straight sets. After that, Roger faltered while Rafael Nadal reclaimed the number one ranking and three Grand Slams in a row. The year ended with Federer finishing strong at the Tour championships in London and he seems poised to continue along that path in the New Year.
An early season victory in Doha against Nikolay Davydenko signals Federer is ready to push Nadal for the number one ranking once more. But as he approaches the age of thirty, Federer is well aware that father time is going to be knocking on his door with increased frequency.
As for Nadal, a recent bout with the flu has put his preparation for a “Rafa-Slam” in jeopardy. How healthy will the Spaniard be as he tries to win his fourth consecutive slam?
From my perspective, we are ripe to have a new Grand Slam champion here this year. Despite Federer’s apparent return to brilliance, he is much more prone to faltering now than ever before. He has been beaten in the past year by players that never would have previously given him the slightest challenge. Players like Berdych, Davydenko, Hewitt, Monfils and Soderling all earned big wins over the Swiss master in 2010. Once that aura of invincibility has disappeared, anything can happen.
With Nadal’s health questionable, there is no guaranteeing he will be able to hack numerous best-of-five set matches in the tough Australian heat. He is susceptible to an early round upset depending on his fitness and if he endures those opening rounds will be forced to face some very difficult players in the quarter and semi-finals.
Nadal opens the main draw against Marcos Daniel of Brazil who is ranked 93rd in the world and is not exactly known for his hard-court abilities. In fact, Daniel was unable to amass a single victory on cement in 2010. Even Nadal at 50% is going to steamroll this guy in the opening round without a doubt.
Nadal could get Feliciano Lopez in round three and Marin Cilic or John Isner in the fourth round. David Ferrer or David Nalbandian could await in the quarter-finals. Nalbandian has given Nadal problems in the past, and both he and Ferrer faced-off in the finals of Auckland yesterday where Ferrer emerged victorious. The bottom line is that both players are feeling pretty good early on this year and will make Rafa work hard to earn a win against them.
In the semi-finals Nadal has players like Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling among his potential opponents. All of those foes are in the second quarter of the draw which promises to be a brutal one to navigate through. A Soderling vs. Tsonga round of sixteen match is possible as well as a Del Potro vs. Murray. Wow!
In the bottom half of the draw, fans will likely be cheering for a Roddick vs. Djokovic quarter final, followed by that winner taking on Federer in the semi-finals.
Roddick made the finals in Brisbane a week ago where he fell to Soderling. Djokovic played in the Hopman Cup but against lower opponents, so it is tough to gauge where his game is at just yet. Three years removed from his only Slam win however and we’re all still waiting for the Serb to get it together and prove himself to be more than Rafa and Roger’s understudy.
Don’t forget about other big names in the bottom half of the draw like Tomas Berdych, Gael Monfils and Nikolay Davydenko. This is the year where one of these guys could finally make it happen for the first time at a Grand Slam.
While we can expect the possibility of a Rafa vs. Roger final, I suggest being open to something quite different in two week’s time. The stage is set and starting tomorrow we will see the first matches of our favorite kind of tennis take place – Grand Slam tennis! Sit back and enjoy the show.