This year presents perhaps the most packed tennis calendar that we’ve ever seen. Not only are Masters 1000 tournaments getting longer and more team events squeezing their way into the schedule, but this year, we have the Olympics.
Fans have barely finished their strawberries and cream over in London, and yet men’s and women’s tennis will soon return to Paris for nine days of Olympics tennis action.
Who is the favorite to win the men’s and women’s singles events? Why is it perhaps the biggest challenge of the year to make a deep run at the 2024 Olympics? Read on for our first look at the next big thing in the tennis calendar.
The Unique Challenge Presented by the Olympics in 2024
Before we dive into looking at our favorites for the 2024 Olympics, some important context. This year’s Olympics offers a unique challenge for players because of the surface it’s played on.
The 2024 Olympics will be contested on clay, at Roland-Garros. What’s challenging about this is that both the ATP and WTA Tours have just spent five weeks on grass. Chopping and changing between the two surfaces is perhaps the toughest task in tennis.
Why? Because clay and grass could not be more different.
Grass offers little friction for both tennis balls and shoes. This means that when a ball strikes the grass surface, it will skid on, maintaining a low, fast bounce. Same for shoes–it’s tougher to get a grip on grass, meaning that movement must consist of many small steps, rather than big, hard pushes.
Clay is entirely different. When a ball bounces on clay, it grips the gritty surface. This causes it to slow down and sit up. Likewise with movement, there is a combination of grip and slide on clay, making patterns of movement unique on the surface.
All this to say, success on grass and clay looks very different. Players who thrive on grass courts are typically light on their feet, with big serves, flat shots, great hands at the net, sharp slices and have an attacking brand of tennis.
Clay, on the other hand, rewards heavy spin, high levels of cardio endurance, and players who can patiently construct points from the baseline.
Who’s Hot Right Now?
What does all of this mean for the Olympics tennis this year? Essentially, it means that the players who are in form right now on grass, may not be the same ones who will succeed on the Parisian clay in two weeks’ time.
Here is a look at who has been running hot in men’s tennis this month:
- Carlos Alcaraz
- Novak Djokovic
- Lorenzo Musetti
- Daniil Medvedev
While for the women, we have:
- Jasmine Paolini
- Barbora Krejcikova
- Donna Vekic
- Elena Rybakina
But are these names the same ones which will be favorites for Olympic gold later this month?
What Are Bookmakers Saying?
What better place to get a gauge of those in contention at the Olympics than by looking at what tennis betting sites have to say. Here are the latest odds for winning Olympic gold:
Men’s singles
- Carlos Alcaraz @ 3.00 (+200)
- Jannik Sinner @ 3.75 (+275)
- Novak Djokovic @ 4.00 (+300)
- Alexander Zverev @ 6.00 (+500)
- Rafael Nadal @ 9.00 (+800)
- Casper Ruud @ 13.00 (+1200)
Alcaraz and Djokovic are familiar names on this list, with the pair recently going deep at Wimbledon and being in fine form. However, a few players who did not perform so well on the grass are back in contention for Olympic gold as well, with the likes of Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud being favorites at the bookmakers.
Women’s singles
- Iga Swiatek @ 1.50 (-200)
- Coco Gauff @ 6.00 (+500)
- Elena Rybakina @ 10.00 (+900)
- Marketa Vondrousova @ 13.00 (+1200)
- Mirra Andreeva @ 15.00 (+1400)
- Naomi Osaka @ 17.00 (+1600)
Perhaps the biggest shift in favorites is seen in the women’s event. Iga Swiatek had a poor grass court season with an early loss at Wimbledon. But back on clay, the Pole is a huge favorite to win the Olympics. The likes of Mirra Andreeva and Naomi Osaka are also in the conversation.
Our Picks
We are backing Novak Djokovic and Jasmine Paolini to take out the two gold medals in the singles events at the 2024 Olympics.
Djokovic has been overt with the fact that this is the most important milestone of his career. The Serbian is yet to win an Olympic medal, with this the only major achievement missing off his resume. He returned to brilliant form at Wimbledon recently, and should go all the way.
Paolini, on the other hand, has been one player that has maintained form across both clay and grass this year. Her incredible consistency makes her our favorite to win gold this year; assuming Swiatek is upset, of course.
