What Novak Djokovic’s VISA Denial Does For Australian Open Odds

It seems as though Novak Djokovic will not be allowed to compete at the Australian Open after all. The Australian Border Force has denied Djokovic’s VISA and is sending him home. Yet, despite that oddsmakers still believe he’s the favorite to win the Aussie Open.  

The Australian Open men’s odds have been up and down all day. Novak Djokovic started the week as the favorite at +150, with Daniil Medvedev behind him at +285. Later in the day, those odds shifted so the two were tied at +200. Now, about a half hour after the news he’s being sent home, Djokovic’s odds have shrunk again to +175, with Medvedev staying at +200. So yeah, Djokovic is still the favorite to win the Australian Open even as it seems he won’t be allowed to compete.  

Bettors are still backing Djokovic, but he’s not their favorite. Over the last 24 hours, Medvedev has become the betting favorite with 34.8% of bets placed on him. Djokovic is second with 27.6% of bets though. Rafa Nadal, 11.6%, Alex Zverev 7.7%, and Andy Murray, 5.5%, round out the top 5. 

Quote from OddsChecker spokesman Kyle Newman, “Will he or won’t he play? Novak Djokovic does has a medical exemption to play in the Australian Open, if he can get into the country he will be allowed to play. However, the Border Force has denied Djokovic entry as they haven’t found a reason to give him a medical exemption. Unless something changes when Djokovic appeals the decision he won’t be allowed to play. So, it’s surprising to see oddsmakers continue to back Djokovic despite knowing that’s going to be difficult for him to get access to the country. How can someone be a favorite to win a tournament they’re unlikely to compete in?” 

If you use any of the data or quotes from this press release please credit OddsChecker by using the following link: https://www.oddschecker.com/us/tennis/australian-open-mens/winner 

MEN’S AUSTRALIAN OPEN WINNER ODDS 

Player	Odds	Implied chance
Novak Djokovic	+175	36.4%
Daniil Medvedev	+200	33.3%
Alexander Zverev	+275	26.7%
Rafael Nadal	+1200	7.7%
Jannik Sinner	+2300	4.2%