It was an emotional scene when Jannik Sinner found out he was going to become world No.1 at last year’s 2024 French Open. Not only was it a huge accomplishment for him and his camp — with Sinner being just 22-year-old when it happened — but it was also amazing for his home nation. No Italian player in history had ever become No.1 until Jannik Sinner and he had this to say about it:

“It means a lot, but I think it’s great for Italy. We’re a great country with great coaches and players and we can see this now.”

Since then, Sinner has remained world No.1 and currently sits at the top with 11,330 points. No other player has come close to overtaking him, although the points gap is starting to grow closer due to Sinner currently finding himself in the middle of a 3-month long suspension.

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz Remain the Leading Favourites to 2025 Year-End World No.1

With the current calendar year well underway, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are the two favourites to be World No.1 once 2025 comes to a close.

A lot of eyes will be on Carlos Alcaraz over the coming months. It’s no secret that Alcaraz struggled last year, especially with his end-of-season matches, which was caused by overplaying and persistent illness. And at the start of this year, Alcaraz confirmed “I’m not feeling 100 per cent well yet,” which many fans were left disheartened by. Let’s not forget, though, that despite not being at his best in recent times, Alcarez still won two slams in 2024 — the French Open and Wimbledon — while also beating Sinner in all three of their meetings. Really, there’s no telling what damage a refreshed and rejuvenated Alcaraz could do in 2025, especially with his new service motion starting to come good.

Alcaraz is already starting to pick up momentum, too, with the 21-year-old Spanish recently winning the ABN AMRO Open in Rotterdam. The next step for Alcaraz is to successfully defend his title at Roland-Garros in May, which could set him up nicely for an explosive run from then until the end of the year.

➡️ All of the tennis sportsbooks on BettingTools currently have Carlos Alcaraz (6/4) as the outstanding favourite to win the 2025 French Open, followed by Jannik Sinner (3/1) and Novak Novak Djokovic (13/2)

However, there’s no guarantee that Alcaraz is suddenly going to storm this year’s ATP Tour now that Sinner’s return is edging closer every day. Following his recent suspension for doping — which Sinner himself has disputed — Sinner will have a major point to prove when the suspension ends on May 4. The current plan is for Sinner to play Rome swiftly followed by Roland Garros, with the tennis gods likely cooking up a classic final between Sinner and Alcaraz. Interestingly, the French open is the only Grand Slam that Sinner has yet to win, so he’ll be looking to carry any momentum he can from Rome into this year’s tournament.

An outsider to finish as World No.1 at the end of 2025 is the legendary Novak Djokavic. We’ve seen Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Rafael Nadal all fall victim to father time in recent years, and it looks like Nole’s clock is finally ticking. Recent losses and injury struggles have made life on the tour incredibly difficult for the Serb, who has majorly slipped down the rankings and currently sits at No.7. Last year wasn’t particularly great for Djokovic, either, with him failing to win a single Grand Slam title for the first time in seven years. These are unavoidable signs that Djokovic’s career is ultimately going to come to an end soon — whether it’s next year or potentially 2027 — but you wouldn’t rule him out winning that illusive 25th slam that he’s been chasing. As for him becoming World No.1 again, though, that ship has sailed.

Why Was Sinner Suspended?

Jannick Sinner controversially accepted a 3-month-long suspension back in February following a doping investigation.

This stemmed from Sinner testing positive for clostebol, which the Italian successfully argued was inadvertently given to him by his psychotherapist. Ultimately, the World Anti-Doping Agency — WADA — accepted that Sinner did not intend to cheat and that the clostebol had no performance-enhancing benefit for him. As a compromise, the parties settled on a 3-month suspension and Sinner will therefore be returning just in time for the 2025 Italian Open in May.

Interestingly, Sinner’s suspension hasn’t had that much of an impact on the world rankings. This is testament to how dominant he’s been in recent times. Despite currently finding himself in the middle of his 3-month suspension, Sinner is still sitting comfortably at the top of the ATP rankings. However, if Sinner is to lose his No.1 spot by the end of year, this period of inactivity could be the thing that comes back to haunt him.

Summary

There’s a lot of tennis coming up. We’ve got the Italian Open in May shortly followed by Roland-Garros, which will then kick-start the road to Wimbledon. When these tournaments take place, keep your eyes on Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who will be going all guns blazing to win them. Ultimately, the spring to summer period will play a huge role in dictating who goes on to finish 2025 as World No.1, and it’s really a coin tossup between these two new generation players. Most former pros in the media, including Tim Henman and Laura Robson, predict that Alcaraz will be the man to do it, especially now that he’s starting to bounce back from a disappointing 2024. However, don’t be surprised if a highly motivated Sinner returns with a vengeance and goes on a dominant run to keep his No.1 rank secured this year.